The AGI Reality Check

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Hey there

Let me tell you about the most expensive existential crisis in human history.

While AI experts are warning that superintelligence carries a 25% existential risk by 2030, and OpenAI's new o3 model just scored over 70% on the ARC-AGI benchmark - basically passing the "can AI think like humans" test - guess what the real bottleneck is?

Electricity bills.

Yep. While everyone's panicking about AI becoming too smart, the industry is quietly hitting a wall that's way more mundane: OpenAI needs "trillions of dollars" just to keep the lights on. Meanwhile, power constraints are forcing data center companies to pre-pay 85% of projected electricity costs before even connecting to the grid.

It's like worrying about your Ferrari going too fast while you're stuck at the gas station with an empty tank.

The Great Disconnect

Here's what's fascinating about this moment - we simultaneously have:

• AI models that can reason through problems better than most humans

• A 75% funding surge in AI startups, with $73.1 billion invested globally in Q1 2025 alone.

• Tech giants building private data centers because the grid can't handle their demand.

• Entrepreneurs making $12.5K/month with simple AI agents that solve boring problems

Notice the pattern? The billion-dollar companies are struggling with infrastructure while the small players are actually making money.

The Agent Economy Is Already Here

While OpenAI burns through compute trying to achieve AGI, smart entrepreneurs are building what Greg Isenberg calls "leveraged agencies" - starting with manual services, then automating with AI agents.

These aren't trying to replace human intelligence. They're just handling soul-crushing tasks like:

• Insurance form processing

• Invoice management

• PDF to Salesforce conversion

• Review response automation

Boring? Absolutely. Profitable? You bet.

The beauty of this approach? You don't need trillion-dollar infrastructure. You need a $20 ChatGPT subscription and the ability to identify processes people hate doing.

The Superintelligence Paradox

Meta just warned about "novel safety risks" as they push toward artificial superintelligence, while simultaneously refusing to sign Europe's AI safety code because it might slow their development [Your message reference].

Translation: "We're terrified our AI might be too powerful, but we're also terrified of not building it fast enough."

Meanwhile, Geoffrey Hinton - the literal Godfather of AI - is warning about existential risks while the industry can't even figure out how to power their current models sustainably.

It's like being afraid your rocket ship might reach Mars too quickly while you're still trying to figure out how to fuel it.

The Infrastructure Reality

Here's what no one's talking about in all the AGI hype: Goldman Sachs projects that grid interconnection backlogs have stretched from under 2 years to over 10 years. Major gas turbine manufacturers have backlogs stretching to 2029.

So while everyone's debating whether AI will replace humans, the real question is: Can we even keep these systems running?

Meanwhile, Bloom Energy projects that more than 25% of new data centers will produce most of their power on-site by 2030. Tech companies are literally becoming energy companies out of necessity.

The Opportunity Hidden in Plain Sight

While big tech fights energy constraints and regulatory battles, here's what's actually working:

1. Local-first AI solutions - Models that run on your laptop, not trillion-dollar data centers

2. Specific problem solvers - Tools that automate one boring task extremely well

3. Agent-based workflows - Multiple smaller AIs working together instead of one massive model

4. Infrastructure plays - Companies solving the power, deployment, and scaling challenges

The most successful AI entrepreneurs right now aren't trying to build AGI. They're building profitable businesses that solve expensive problems with today's technology.

The Real Question

Forget the existential risk debates for a moment. Here's what matters for your business:

While OpenAI spends billions trying to make AI think better, are you building something that helps people work better?

While Meta fights regulations and energy constraints, are you serving customers who just want their invoice processing automated?

While experts warn about superintelligence, are you making money with regular intelligence?

The companies winning right now aren't waiting for AGI. They're building with the AI we have, solving the problems that exist today, and making actual revenue while everyone else argues about theoretical futures.

The superintelligence might be coming. The energy crisis definitely is. But the money? That's available right now for anyone willing to solve boring problems with smart tools.

What expensive, repetitive process in your industry is begging for an AI agent?

That's your real opportunity while everyone else panics about the singularity.

- Aashish

P.S. I'm genuinely curious - are you building for the AI future everyone's debating, or the AI present that's actually here? The most interesting opportunities I'm seeing aren't coming from the companies with trillion-dollar budgets - they're coming from entrepreneurs who understand that boring problems pay the bills.

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